NBA Predictions For 2022

While I’m not really a fan of the “I will explain a big idea in a 300-page best seller” format, one exception for me is Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. There’s a lot going on in this book and this isn’t going to be a book review, but one of the…

NBA Stabilization Rates and the Padding Approach

Stabilization Rates One of the most common issues NBA fans and analysts grapple with in analyzing players is when does a certain level of new performance become ‘real’, e.g., “Marcus Smart is shooting 54% from three after 4 games: has he had a breakout, or this just noise?” Enter the concept of ‘stabilization rates’, which…


Hello – this is Konstantin Medvedovsky (@kmedved on twitter)’s site. Going forward, I’ll aim to make this a repository of research I do, or other topics I’m interested in. More to follow.

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