NBA Predictions For 2022

While I’m not really a fan of the “I will explain a big idea in a 300-page best seller” format, one exception for me is Philip Tetlock’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. There’s a lot going on in this book and this isn’t going to be a book review, but one of the […]

NBA Stabilization Rates and the Padding Approach

Stabilization Rates One of the most common issues NBA fans and analysts grapple with in analyzing players is when does a certain level of new performance become ‘real’, e.g., “Marcus Smart is shooting 54% from three after 4 games: has he had a breakout, or this just noise?” Enter the concept of ‘stabilization rates’, which […]


Hello – this is Konstantin Medvedovsky (@kmedved on twitter)’s site. Going forward, I’ll aim to make this a repository of research I do, or other topics I’m interested in. More to follow.

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